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Real Titánico vs Gijón Industrial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Real Titánico42%
×Draw26%
Gijón Industrial32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.41
Gijón Industrial
1.19

Real Titánico creates 18% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 80 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Gijón Industrial
0.95

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Gijón Industrial
1.69

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Gijón Industrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
68%
Real Titánico or Gijón Industrial
74%
Draw or Gijón Industrial
58%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
20%
Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
76%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
41%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
17%
Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
70%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
33%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
57%
Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Titánico scores more
42%
level
26%
Gijón Industrial scores more
32%

Real Titánico at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Titánico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Titánico 0 – 1 Gijón Industrial

Gijón Industrial beat Real Titánico 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.