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Real Titánico vs Condal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Condal
Condal
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Real Titánico46%
×Draw26%
Condal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.45
Condal
1.04

Real Titánico creates 39% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 77 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Condal
0.66

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Condal
1.77

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Condal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Condal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
73%
Real Titánico or Condal
74%
Draw or Condal
54%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
23%
Condal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
77%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
42%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
18%
Condal 1+ goals
65%
Condal 2+ goals
28%
Condal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
63%
Condal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Condal away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Condal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Condal attack 0.66 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Titánico scores more
46%
level
26%
Condal scores more
27%

Real Titánico at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Titánico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Titánico vs Condal

Condal beat Real Titánico 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.