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Real Titánico vs Caudal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caudal
Caudal
9/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Real Titánico28%
×Draw27%
Caudal45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.04
Caudal
1.39

Caudal creates 34% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 113 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Caudal
1.35

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Caudal
0.96

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Caudal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Caudal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
55%
Real Titánico or Caudal
73%
Draw or Caudal
72%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
11%
Caudal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
65%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
28%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
9%
Caudal 1+ goals
75%
Caudal 2+ goals
40%
Caudal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
39%
Caudal (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Caudal away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Caudal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Caudal attack 1.35 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Titánico scores more
28%
level
27%
Caudal scores more
45%

Caudal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Titánico vs Caudal

Caudal beat Real Titánico 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.