Real Titánico 2–4 Avilés Stadium: Result & Stats

Real Titánico

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Avilés Stadium

10/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Real Titánico44%

×Draw26%

Avilés Stadium30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TitánicoExpected goals in this matchAvilés Stadium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.14

Real Titánico

1.44

Avilés Stadium

1.14

Real Titánico creates 26% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 80 away

1.13

creates per match

0.85

1.43

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Real Titánico

1.13

Avilés Stadium

0.85

allows per match

Real Titánico

1.43

Avilés Stadium

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Avilés Stadium →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw

70%

Real Titánico or Avilés Stadium

74%

Draw or Avilés Stadium

56%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+

21%

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals

76%

Real Titánico 2+ goals

42%

Real Titánico 3+ goals

18%

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

68%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

32%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)

59%

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Titánico scores more

44%

level

26%

Avilés Stadium scores more

30%

Real Titánico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Titánico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Titánico 2–4 Avilés Stadium

Avilés Stadium beat Real Titánico 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.

Real Titánico vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Titánico 2–4 Avilés Stadium