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Réal Sport vs Tukunnin — Championnat National 2019

Réal Sport
Réal Sport
FT
0 – 1
Tukunnin
Tukunnin
11/7/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 1Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Réal Sport38%
×Draw33%
Tukunnin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Sport
0.98
Tukunnin
0.83

Réal Sport creates 18% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 88 away

creates per match

Réal Sport
0.84
Tukunnin
0.80

allows per match

Réal Sport
0.86
Tukunnin
1.13

finishing

Réal Sport+0.00on par
Tukunnin+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Sport ↓

Tukunnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Réal Sport or draw
70%
Réal Sport or Tukunnin
67%
Draw or Tukunnin
62%

Winning margin

Réal Sport wins by 2+
14%
Tukunnin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Réal Sport 1+ goals
62%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
26%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
8%
Tukunnin 1+ goals
56%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
20%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Réal Sport (draw refunded)
56%
Tukunnin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Sport at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.86 · 83 matches

Tukunnin away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Sport attack 0.84 + Tukunnin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Tukunnin attack 0.80 + Réal Sport defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Réal Sport scores more
38%
level
33%
Tukunnin scores more
30%

Réal Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Réal Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Réal Sport 0–1 Tukunnin

Tukunnin beat Réal Sport 1-0 in Championnat National on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.