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Réal Sport vs Dynamique Djougou — Championnat National 2019

Réal Sport
Réal Sport
FT
1 – 0
Dynamique Djougou
Dynamique Djougou
3/10/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 11Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Réal Sport47%
×Draw31%
Dynamique Djougou22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Sport
1.17
Dynamique Djougou
0.71

Réal Sport creates 65% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 73 away

creates per match

Réal Sport
0.84
Dynamique Djougou
0.56

allows per match

Réal Sport
0.86
Dynamique Djougou
1.49

finishing

Réal Sport+0.00on par
Dynamique Djougou+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Sport ↓

Dynamique Djougou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Réal Sport or draw
78%
Réal Sport or Dynamique Djougou
69%
Draw or Dynamique Djougou
53%

Winning margin

Réal Sport wins by 2+
20%
Dynamique Djougou wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Réal Sport 1+ goals
69%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
33%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
11%
Dynamique Djougou 1+ goals
51%
Dynamique Djougou 2+ goals
16%
Dynamique Djougou 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Réal Sport (draw refunded)
68%
Dynamique Djougou (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Sport at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.86 · 83 matches

Dynamique Djougou away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Sport attack 0.84 + Dynamique Djougou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dynamique Djougou attack 0.56 + Réal Sport defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Réal Sport scores more
47%
level
31%
Dynamique Djougou scores more
22%

Réal Sport at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Réal Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Réal Sport 1–0 Dynamique Djougou

Réal Sport beat Dynamique Djougou 1-0 in Championnat National on March 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.