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Real Sociedad W vs Sevilla W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sevilla W
Sevilla W
2/12/2023Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 19Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Real Sociedad W54%
×Draw23%
Sevilla W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Sevilla W
1.14

Real Sociedad W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Sevilla W
1.01

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Sevilla W
1.86

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Sevilla W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Sevilla W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
77%
Real Sociedad W or Sevilla W
77%
Draw or Sevilla W
46%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
31%
Sevilla W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
85%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
56%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
29%
Sevilla W 1+ goals
68%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
32%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
70%
Sevilla W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Sevilla W away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Sevilla W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sevilla W attack 1.01 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
54%
level
23%
Sevilla W scores more
23%

Real Sociedad W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Real Sociedad W 0–3 Sevilla W

Sevilla W beat Real Sociedad W 3-0 in Primera División Femenina on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.