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Real Sociedad W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
Preview
15:00
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
9/27/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 5Instalaciones de Zubieta
Big match
46%
Real Madrid W
model favours
31%23%46%

Real Madrid W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Real Sociedad W31%
×Draw23%
Real Madrid W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
1.40
Real Madrid W
1.77

Real Madrid W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 92 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Real Madrid W
2.29

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Real Madrid W
0.92

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
54%
Real Sociedad W or Real Madrid W
77%
Draw or Real Madrid W
69%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
14%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
75%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
41%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
17%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
83%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
53%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
40%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
31%
level
23%
Real Madrid W scores more
46%

Real Madrid W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Real Sociedad W 3 vs Real Madrid W 2
  • Real Sociedad W win just 24% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Real Madrid W win just 56% against the top half (vs 91% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Real Sociedad W
Possession-dominant
Real Madrid W
Possession-dominant
55%Possession59%
78%Pass accuracy83%
12.7ShotsBiggest gap17.7
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Real Sociedad WReal Madrid W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Real Sociedad W
1
Draws
9
Real Madrid W
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 70%
0–30–10–31–42–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLWWW
W
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Sociedad W host Real Madrid W

September 27, 2026: Real Sociedad W take on Real Madrid W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Sociedad W host Real Madrid W at Instalaciones de Zubieta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.