Real Sociedad W 1–1 Real Madrid W: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid W

5/19/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 30Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Real Sociedad W31%

×Draw23%

Real Madrid W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.77

Real Sociedad W

1.40

Real Madrid W

1.77

Real Madrid W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 92 away

1.87

creates per match

2.29

1.26

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Real Sociedad W

1.87

Real Madrid W

2.29

allows per match

Real Sociedad W

1.26

Real Madrid W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw

54%

Real Sociedad W or Real Madrid W

77%

Draw or Real Madrid W

69%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

14%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

75%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

41%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

17%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

83%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

53%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

40%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more

31%

level

23%

Real Madrid W scores more

46%

Real Madrid W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad W vs Real Madrid W

Real Sociedad W and Real Madrid W drew 1-1 in Primera División Femenina on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad W vs Real Madrid W