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Real Sociedad W vs Granada — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
Preview
16:00
Granada
Granada
1/17/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 16Instalaciones de Zubieta
Big match
50%
Real Sociedad W
model favours
50%23%27%

Real Sociedad W win just 24% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real Sociedad W50%
×Draw23%
Granada27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
1.79
Granada
1.25

Real Sociedad W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 45 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Granada
1.24

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Granada
1.71

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Granada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
73%
Real Sociedad W or Granada
77%
Draw or Granada
50%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
27%
Granada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
83%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
53%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
26%
Granada 1+ goals
71%
Granada 2+ goals
36%
Granada 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
65%
Granada (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Granada attack 1.24 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
50%
level
23%
Granada scores more
27%

Real Sociedad W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Granada win just 18% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Real Sociedad W
Possession-dominant
Granada
Balanced
55%PossessionBiggest gap48%
78%Pass accuracy71%
12.7Shots12.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Real Sociedad WGranada

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Real Sociedad W
2
Draws
1
Granada
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 67%
3–02–24–22–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLWWW
Granada
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Sociedad W vs Granada — Match Preview

Real Sociedad W face Granada on January 17, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Sociedad W host Granada at Instalaciones de Zubieta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.