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Real Sociedad W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
Preview
15:00
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
10/18/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 7Instalaciones de Zubieta
Big match
67%
Barcelona W
model favours
15%18%67%

Barcelona W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Real Sociedad W15%
×Draw18%
Barcelona W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
1.10
Barcelona W
2.48

Barcelona W creates 125% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
33%
Real Sociedad W or Barcelona W
82%
Draw or Barcelona W
85%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
5%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
67%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
30%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
10%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
92%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
70%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
18%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
15%
level
18%
Barcelona W scores more
67%

Barcelona W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Real Sociedad W 3 vs Barcelona W 1
  • Real Sociedad W win just 24% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 5.4 goals
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Real Sociedad W
Possession-dominant
Barcelona W
Possession-dominant
55%Possession73%
78%Pass accuracy89%
12.7ShotsBiggest gap26.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Real Sociedad WBarcelona W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Real Sociedad W
0
Draws
9
Barcelona W
Avg goals: 5.4BTTS: 70%
1–21–00–61–31–7

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLWWW
W
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Sociedad W host Barcelona W

October 18, 2026: Real Sociedad W take on Barcelona W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Sociedad W host Barcelona W at Instalaciones de Zubieta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.