Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Sociedad vs Mallorca — La Liga 2026

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mallorca
Mallorca
Julen Lobete 90'
10/16/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 9Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad53%
×Draw24%
Mallorca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad
1.67
Mallorca
1.01

Real Sociedad creates 65% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 46 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad
1.59
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Real Sociedad
1.09
Mallorca
1.74

finishing

Real Sociedad+0.02on par
Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Sociedad or draw
77%
Real Sociedad or Mallorca
76%
Draw or Mallorca
47%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad wins by 2+
28%
Mallorca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad 1+ goals
81%
Real Sociedad 2+ goals
50%
Real Sociedad 3+ goals
23%
Mallorca 1+ goals
64%
Mallorca 2+ goals
27%
Mallorca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)
70%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 38 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad attack 1.59 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Real Sociedad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Sociedad scores more
53%
level
24%
Mallorca scores more
23%

Real Sociedad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Sociedad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
Pablo MaffeoMallorcaMallorca · D
7.6

Match Events

14'
Aihen Muñoz
42'
Rodrigo Battaglia
45+3'
Portu
45+1'
Aihen Muñoz
45+1'
Aihen Muñoz
45+3'
Ángel Rodríguez
46'
Martín Zubimendi← Guevara
46'
Gorosabel← Robert Navarro
63'
Fer Niño← A. Ndiaye
63'
Salva Sevilla← R. Battaglia
66'
Julen Lobete← A. Januzaj
67'
A. Sørloth← A. Isak
76'
I. Baba← Ruiz de Galarreta
76'
Abdón Prats← Ángel
85'
Dani Rodriguez
86'
Jordi Mboula← Lee Kang-In
90+3'
Zubeldía← Portu
90'
Julen Lobete↳ Martín Zubimendi

Possession

50%Real

Shots

10Real

Pass accuracy

50%Real

Statistics

RealMallorca
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots7
2Corners6
11Fouls21
Shots
10Total Shots7
2On Target1
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
3Inside Box4
7Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
377Total Passes371
309Accurate Passes300
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls21
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Real Sociedad vs Mallorca

Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 1-0 in La Liga on October 16, 2021.

Goals: Julen Lobete (90').

Real Sociedad controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.