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Real Sociedad vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Levante
Levante
10/30/2019La LigaLa Liga · Round 11Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Sociedad49%
×Draw24%
Levante27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad
1.65
Levante
1.15

Real Sociedad creates 43% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad
1.59
Levante
1.18

allows per match

Real Sociedad
1.12
Levante
1.71

finishing

Real Sociedad+0.02on par
Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Sociedad or draw
73%
Real Sociedad or Levante
76%
Draw or Levante
51%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad wins by 2+
26%
Levante wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Sociedad 1+ goals
81%
Real Sociedad 2+ goals
49%
Real Sociedad 3+ goals
23%
Levante 1+ goals
68%
Levante 2+ goals
32%
Levante 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)
65%
Levante (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 31 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad attack 1.59 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Levante attack 1.18 + Real Sociedad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Sociedad scores more
49%
level
24%
Levante scores more
27%

Real Sociedad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Sociedad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Liga: Real Sociedad 1–2 Levante

Levante beat Real Sociedad 2-1 in La Liga on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.