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Real Sociedad vs Elche — La Liga 2026

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elche
Elche
Mikel Oyarzabal 81'
9/26/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 7Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Real Sociedad55%
×Draw24%
Elche20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad
1.67
Elche
0.90

Real Sociedad creates 86% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad
1.59
Elche
0.71

allows per match

Real Sociedad
1.09
Elche
1.75

finishing

Real Sociedad+0.02on par
Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Sociedad or draw
80%
Real Sociedad or Elche
76%
Draw or Elche
45%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad wins by 2+
30%
Elche wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Sociedad 1+ goals
81%
Real Sociedad 2+ goals
50%
Real Sociedad 3+ goals
23%
Elche 1+ goals
59%
Elche 2+ goals
23%
Elche 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)
73%
Elche (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 38 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad attack 1.59 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.67

Elche attack 0.71 + Real Sociedad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Sociedad scores more
55%
level
24%
Elche scores more
20%

Real Sociedad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Sociedad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
ZubeldíaReal SociedadReal Sociedad · D
7.5

Match Events

57'
Kiko Casilla
63'
Johan Mojica
64'
Omar Mascarell
67'
G. Carrillo← Lucas Pérez
67'
Gumbau← Raúl Guti
74'
Cristo← Aihen Muñoz
74'
Portu← A. Januzaj
76'
Portu
76'
Pere Milla← D. Benedetto
77'
Tete Morente← P. Piatti
81'
Mikel Oyarzabal↳ Zubeldía
83'
Germán Valera← Mikel Oyarzabal
83'
Guevara← Beñat Turrientes
87'
J. Pastore← Fidel
90'
Elustondo← Mikel Merino

Possession

64%Real

Shots

18Real

Pass accuracy

54%Real

Statistics

RealElche
Overview
64%Possession36%
18Total Shots5
6Corners1
12Fouls16
Shots
18Total Shots5
5On Target2
7Off Target3
6Blocked0
13Inside Box2
5Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
533Total Passes296
459Accurate Passes216
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Real Sociedad vs Elche

Real Sociedad beat Elche 1-0 in La Liga on September 26, 2021.

Goals: Mikel Oyarzabal (81').

Real Sociedad controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.