Real Sociedad 2–0 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

Real Sociedad

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Elche

Mikel Oyarzabal 90+2'

Elustondo 72'

5/7/2021

La Liga · Round 35Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Real Sociedad55%

×Draw24%

Elche20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SociedadExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.90

Real Sociedad

1.67

Elche

0.90

Real Sociedad creates 86% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

1.59

creates per match

0.71

1.09

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Real Sociedad

1.59

Elche

0.71

allows per match

Real Sociedad

1.09

Elche

1.75

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Real Sociedad+0.02on par

Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Sociedad or draw

80%

Real Sociedad or Elche

76%

Draw or Elche

45%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad wins by 2+

30%

Elche wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Sociedad 1+ goals

81%

Real Sociedad 2+ goals

50%

Real Sociedad 3+ goals

23%

Elche 1+ goals

59%

Elche 2+ goals

23%

Elche 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

73%

Elche (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 38 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad attack 1.59 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.67

Elche attack 0.71 + Real Sociedad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Sociedad scores more

55%

level

24%

Elche scores more

20%

Real Sociedad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Sociedad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Elustondo

Real Sociedad · D

8.5

Match Events

11'

11'

11'

24'

28'

Nacho MonrealGoal cancelled

36'

Ander Guevara

46'

Martín Zubimendi← Guevara

46'

Barrenetxea← Jon Guridi

46'

I. Marcone← Fidel

67'

G. Carrillo← L. Boyé

67'

P. Piatti← Josan Ferrández

72'

Elustondo↳ A. Januzaj

83'

Jon Bautista← A. Isak

85'

E. Rigoni← Pere Milla

85'

Luismi Sánchez← O. Mfulu

87'

Portu← A. Januzaj

90+2'

Mikel Oyarzabal↳ Jon Bautista

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealElche

Overview

73%Possession27%

16Total Shots1

7Corners0

8Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots1

3On Target0

11Off Target1

2Blocked0

11Inside Box1

5Outside Box0

Passing

73%Possession27%

617Total Passes229

547Accurate Passes145

89%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0