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Real Santander vs Huila — Primera B 2018

Real Santander
Real Santander
PST
00:00
Huila
Huila
7/18/2020Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 1Estadio de Fútbol Erwin O'Neil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Real Santander37%
×Draw29%
Huila34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Santander
1.15
Huila
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 89 away

creates per match

Real Santander
1.13
Huila
1.01

allows per match

Real Santander
1.20
Huila
1.16

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw
66%
Real Santander or Huila
71%
Draw or Huila
63%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+
15%
Huila wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals
68%
Real Santander 2+ goals
32%
Real Santander 3+ goals
11%
Huila 1+ goals
67%
Huila 2+ goals
30%
Huila 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)
52%
Huila (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Huila away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Huila defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Huila attack 1.01 + Real Santander defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Santander scores more
37%
level
29%
Huila scores more
34%

Real Santander at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Santander host Huila

July 18, 2020: Real Santander take on Huila in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Santander host Huila at Estadio de Fútbol Erwin O'Neil.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.