Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Murcia vs Teruel — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
Preview
15:00
Teruel
Teruel
9/6/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Enrique Roca
44%
Real Murcia
model favours
44%30%26%
1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Murcia44%
×Draw30%
Teruel26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
1.20
Teruel
0.84

Real Murcia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Teruel
0.79

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Teruel
1.26

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Teruel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
74%
Real Murcia or Teruel
70%
Draw or Teruel
56%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
19%
Teruel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
70%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
34%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
12%
Teruel 1+ goals
57%
Teruel 2+ goals
21%
Teruel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
63%
Teruel (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Teruel away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Teruel attack 0.79 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Murcia scores more
44%
level
30%
Teruel scores more
26%

Real Murcia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Murcia
WWLDW
Teruel
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Murcia host Teruel

September 6, 2026: Real Murcia take on Teruel in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Murcia host Teruel at Estadio Enrique Roca.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.