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Real Murcia vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
Preview
16:00
Algeciras
Algeciras
11/8/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio Enrique Roca
Big match
43%
Real Murcia
model favours
43%28%28%
1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Murcia43%
×Draw28%
Algeciras28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
1.27
Algeciras
0.97

Real Murcia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Algeciras
1.05

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Algeciras
1.41

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Algeciras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
72%
Real Murcia or Algeciras
72%
Draw or Algeciras
57%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
19%
Algeciras wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
72%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
36%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
14%
Algeciras 1+ goals
62%
Algeciras 2+ goals
25%
Algeciras 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
60%
Algeciras (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Algeciras attack 1.05 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Murcia scores more
43%
level
28%
Algeciras scores more
28%

Real Murcia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Murcia
WWLDW
Algeciras
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Murcia face Algeciras (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Real Murcia hosting Algeciras. Match starts November 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Murcia host Algeciras at Estadio Enrique Roca.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.