Real Murcia 1–0 Algeciras: Result & Stats

Real Murcia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Algeciras

Alberto González 40'

10/15/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Murcia43%

×Draw28%

Algeciras28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MurciaExpected goals in this matchAlgeciras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.97

Real Murcia

1.27

Algeciras

0.97

Real Murcia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

1.14

creates per match

1.05

0.89

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Real Murcia

1.14

Algeciras

1.05

allows per match

Real Murcia

0.89

Algeciras

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Algeciras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw

72%

Real Murcia or Algeciras

72%

Draw or Algeciras

57%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+

19%

Algeciras wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals

72%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

36%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

14%

Algeciras 1+ goals

62%

Algeciras 2+ goals

25%

Algeciras 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

60%

Algeciras (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Algeciras attack 1.05 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Murcia scores more

43%

level

28%

Algeciras scores more

28%

Real Murcia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Zequi

40'

Alberto González

64'

Arturo Molina← Dani Vega

64'

José Ángel Carrillo← Álex Rubio

68'

Adrián Sardinero← Zequi

79'

P. Leon

79'

Marino Illescas← Diego Esteban

79'

Javi Cueto← Borja Fernández

84'

Carlos Rojas← Rodri

84'

Ángel López← Rafa Roldán

90'

A. Sardinero

90'

V. G. Rofino

90+1'

Sergio Santos← Pedro León

Real

Algeciras

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Munúa

64'▲Arturo Molina←▼Dani Vega

64'▲José Ángel Carrillo←▼Álex Rubio

84'▲Carlos Rojas←▼Rodri

90+1'▲Sergio Santos←▼Pedro León

Real Murcia substitutes

MolinaCarrilloRojasSantosCarmonaSantiagoFerrerPiedraDuarteBaró

Manager: Lolo Escobar

68'▲Adrián Sardinero←▼Zequi

79'▲Marino Illescas←▼Diego Esteban

79'▲Javi Cueto←▼Borja Fernández

84'▲Ángel López←▼Rafa Roldán

Algeciras substitutes

SardineroIllescasCuetoLópezAmorrortuNavarroPimientaAdmonioLavín