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Real Murcia II vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Real Murcia II45%
×Draw26%
UCAM Murcia II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
1.51
UCAM Murcia II
1.15

Real Murcia II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 110 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
71%
Real Murcia II or UCAM Murcia II
74%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
55%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
23%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
78%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
44%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
19%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
68%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
32%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
61%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
45%
level
26%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
29%

Real Murcia II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Murcia II 3 – 2 UCAM Murcia II

Real Murcia II beat UCAM Murcia II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.