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Real Murcia II vs Bullense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bullense
Bullense
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Real Murcia II64%
×Draw21%
Bullense16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
2.01
Bullense
0.88

Real Murcia II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 79 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
Bullense
0.78

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
Bullense
2.13

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Bullense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
84%
Real Murcia II or Bullense
79%
Draw or Bullense
36%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
39%
Bullense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
87%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
59%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
32%
Bullense 1+ goals
59%
Bullense 2+ goals
22%
Bullense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
80%
Bullense (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.01

Bullense attack 0.78 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
64%
level
21%
Bullense scores more
16%

Real Murcia II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Bullense

Bullense beat Real Murcia II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.