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Real Murcia II vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
2/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Real Murcia II44%
×Draw27%
Atlético Pulpileño29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
1.37
Atlético Pulpileño
1.06

Real Murcia II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 93 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
71%
Real Murcia II or Atlético Pulpileño
73%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
56%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
75%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
40%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
16%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.37

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
44%
level
27%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
29%

Real Murcia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Real Murcia II 2–3 Atlético Pulpileño

Atlético Pulpileño beat Real Murcia II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.