Real Monterotondo 3–0 Atletico Uri: Result & Stats

Real Monterotondo

FT

3 – 0

Atletico Uri

11/21/2021

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Real Monterotondo48%

×Draw25%

Atletico Uri28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MonterotondoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Uri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.19

Real Monterotondo

1.63

Atletico Uri

1.19

Real Monterotondo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.54

creates per match

0.87

1.50

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Real Monterotondo

1.54

Atletico Uri

0.87

allows per match

Real Monterotondo

1.50

Atletico Uri

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Atletico Uri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw

72%

Real Monterotondo or Atletico Uri

75%

Draw or Atletico Uri

52%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+

25%

Atletico Uri wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals

80%

Real Monterotondo 2+ goals

48%

Real Monterotondo 3+ goals

22%

Atletico Uri 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Uri 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Uri 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)

63%

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more

48%

level

25%

Atletico Uri scores more

28%

Real Monterotondo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Monterotondo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff