Real Monarchs vs Ventura County

Real Monarchs

Preview

21:00

Ventura County

9/20/2026

MLS Next Pro · Group StageZions Bank Stadium

Big match

49%

Real Monarchs

model favours

49%21%29%

73% of Ventura County’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

69%

over 2.5 goals

68%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Real Monarchs49%

×Draw21%

Ventura County29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MonarchsExpected goals in this matchVentura County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.54

Real Monarchs

2.04

Ventura County

1.54

Real Monarchs creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 37 away

1.72

creates per match

1.49

1.58

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Real Monarchs

1.72

Ventura County

1.49

allows per match

Real Monarchs

1.58

Ventura County

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

Ventura County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw

71%

Real Monarchs or Ventura County

79%

Draw or Ventura County

51%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+

28%

Ventura County wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals

87%

Real Monarchs 2+ goals

60%

Real Monarchs 3+ goals

33%

Ventura County 1+ goals

79%

Ventura County 2+ goals

45%

Ventura County 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)

63%

Ventura County (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.72 + Ventura County defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ventura County attack 1.49 + Real Monarchs defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Monarchs scores more

49%

level

21%

Ventura County scores more

29%

Real Monarchs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Monarchs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

44% of Ventura County’s goals come after the 75th minute
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Monarchs

WDLLW

County

LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff