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Real Monarchs vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
5/10/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 15Zions Bank Stadium (Herriman, Utah)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Real Monarchs55%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monarchs
2.00
Sporting KC II
1.25

Real Monarchs creates 60% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 66 away

creates per match

Real Monarchs
1.83
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Real Monarchs
1.32
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw
76%
Real Monarchs or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
45%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+
32%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals
86%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
59%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
32%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
71%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
36%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
70%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.32 · 63 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.83 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Real Monarchs defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Monarchs scores more
55%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
24%

Real Monarchs at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Monarchs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Monarchs vs Sporting KC II

Real Monarchs beat Sporting KC II 4-1 in USL Championship on May 10, 2018.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium (Herriman, Utah).