Real Madrid W 3–0 Sporting Huelva W: Result & Stats

Real Madrid W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Huelva W

Athenea del Castillo 70'

Nahikari García 62'

Esther González 59'

12/22/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 15Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Real Madrid W67%

×Draw20%

Sporting Huelva W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid WExpected goals in this matchSporting Huelva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.81

Real Madrid W

2.10

Sporting Huelva W

0.81

Real Madrid W creates 159% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 89 away

2.29

creates per match

0.73

0.90

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Real Madrid W

2.29

Sporting Huelva W

0.73

allows per match

Real Madrid W

0.90

Sporting Huelva W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw

87%

Real Madrid W or Sporting Huelva W

80%

Draw or Sporting Huelva W

33%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

43%

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

88%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

62%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

35%

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

56%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

19%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

83%

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Madrid W scores more

67%

level

20%

Sporting Huelva W scores more

13%

Real Madrid W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Esther González

62'

Nahikari García↳ Claudia Zornoza

66'

Teresa Abelleira← Esther González

66'

Marta Cardona← Claudia Zornoza

67'

Ivana

70'

Athenea del Castillo

74'

Lorena Navarro← Maite Oroz

74'

Chini Pizarro← Paula Romero

74'

Judith Luzuriaga← Ana Marcos

83'

Lucía Rodríguez← B. Peter

83'

Carla Camacho← Nahikari García

84'

Cristina Gey← Fatoumata Kanteh

89'

P. Ojeda

Real

Sporting

1

5

16

15

19

▼

Romero

18

Abildå

10

Fisher

11

▼

Marcos

12

Keane

9

Ramírez

8

▼

Kanteh

1

Rodríguez

4

▼

2

5

20

6

21

A

▼

Zornoza

8

▼

Oroz

10

⚽

▼

González

14

⚽

▼

García

22

⚽

Castillo

Manager: Alberto Toril

66'▲Teresa Abelleira←▼Esther González

66'▲Marta Cardona←▼Claudia Zornoza

74'▲Lorena Navarro←▼Maite Oroz

83'▲Lucía Rodríguez←▼B. Peter

83'▲Carla Camacho←▼Nahikari García

Real Madrid W substitutes

3Abelleira11Cardona12Navarro18Rodríguez34Camacho27Fuente15Claudia

Manager: Antonio

74'▲Chini Pizarro←▼Paula Romero

74'▲Judith Luzuriaga←▼Ana Marcos

84'▲Cristina Gey←▼Fatoumata Kanteh

Sporting Huelva W substitutes

17Pizarro7Luzuriaga21Gey6Méndez14García13Bella