Real Madrid W 1–1 Sporting Huelva W: Result & Stats

Real Madrid W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Huelva W

Olga Carmona 42'

Dany Helena 80'

5/2/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 28Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Real Madrid W67%

×Draw20%

Sporting Huelva W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid WExpected goals in this matchSporting Huelva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.81

Real Madrid W

2.10

Sporting Huelva W

0.81

Real Madrid W creates 159% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 89 away

2.29

creates per match

0.73

0.90

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Real Madrid W

2.29

Sporting Huelva W

0.73

allows per match

Real Madrid W

0.90

Sporting Huelva W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw

87%

Real Madrid W or Sporting Huelva W

80%

Draw or Sporting Huelva W

33%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

43%

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

88%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

62%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

35%

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

56%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

19%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

83%

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Madrid W scores more

67%

level

20%

Sporting Huelva W scores more

13%

Real Madrid W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Cinta Rodriguez

42'

Olga Carmona↳ S. Jakobsson

69'

C. Falknor← K. Fisher

69'

Cristina Gey← Sandra Castelló

80'

Teresa Abelleira← Maite Oroz

80'

Dany Helena↳ Cristina Gey

81'

Jenni Morilla← Dany Helena

84'

J. Martínez← Marta Corredera

Real

Sporting

1

Ashurst

3

Carol

5

Mar

16

▼

15

14

18

4

10

▼

Fisher

11

⚽

▼

9

1

4

17

▼

2

23

6

8

▼

Oroz

9

Asllani

10

A

Jakobsson

7

⚽

Carmona

11

Cardona

Manager: David Aznar

80'▲Teresa Abelleira←▼Maite Oroz

84'▲J. Martínez←▼Marta Corredera

Real Madrid W substitutes

16Abelleira21Martínez18Ubogagu5Thaisa14Ortíz12Navarro24Arias13Goméz

Manager: Antonio

69'▲C. Falknor←▼K. Fisher

69'▲Cristina Gey←▼Sandra Castelló

81'▲Jenni Morilla←▼Dany Helena

Sporting Huelva W substitutes

7Falknor21Gey12Morilla13Buhigas23Begič17Bernal

Match Recap: Real Madrid W vs Sporting Huelva W

Real Madrid W and Sporting Huelva W drew 1-1 in Primera División Femenina on May 2, 2021.

Goals: Olga Carmona (42'), Dany Helena (80').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11 in Madrid.

Real Madrid W vs Sporting Huelva W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Madrid W vs Sporting Huelva W