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Real Madrid W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2020

Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
Preview
16:00
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
1/24/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 17
Big match
51%
Real Madrid W
model favours
51%23%27%

Real Madrid W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Real Madrid W51%
×Draw23%
Real Sociedad W27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid W
1.88
Real Sociedad W
1.30

Real Madrid W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

creates per match

Real Madrid W
2.29
Real Sociedad W
1.71

allows per match

Real Madrid W
0.90
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw
73%
Real Madrid W or Real Sociedad W
77%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
49%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+
29%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals
85%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
56%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
29%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
73%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
37%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
66%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.88

Real Sociedad W attack 1.71 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Madrid W scores more
51%
level
23%
Real Sociedad W scores more
27%

Real Madrid W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Real Madrid W 2 vs Real Sociedad W 3
  • Real Madrid W win just 56% against the top half (vs 91% against the bottom)
  • Real Sociedad W win just 26% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWD
W
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Madrid W face Real Sociedad W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Real Madrid W hosting Real Sociedad W. Match starts January 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.