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Real Madrid W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
6/6/2021Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 32Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Real Madrid W52%
×Draw23%
Real Sociedad W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid W
1.88
Real Sociedad W
1.27

Real Madrid W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 119 away

creates per match

Real Madrid W
2.29
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Real Madrid W
0.90
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw
74%
Real Madrid W or Real Sociedad W
77%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
48%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+
29%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals
85%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
56%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
29%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
72%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
36%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
67%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.88

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Madrid W scores more
52%
level
23%
Real Sociedad W scores more
26%

Real Madrid W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Real Madrid W 3–2 Real Sociedad W

Real Madrid W beat Real Sociedad W 3-2 in Primera División Femenina on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11 in Madrid.