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Real Madrid W vs Granada — Primera División Femenina 2021

Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
Preview
15:00
Granada
Granada
5/9/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 28
Big match
60%
Real Madrid W
model favours
60%21%19%

Real Madrid W have won 6 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real Madrid W60%
×Draw21%
Granada19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid W
2.04
Granada
1.06

Real Madrid W creates 92% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Real Madrid W
2.37
Granada
1.24

allows per match

Real Madrid W
0.88
Granada
1.71

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par
Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Granada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw
81%
Real Madrid W or Granada
79%
Draw or Granada
40%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+
36%
Granada wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals
87%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
60%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
33%
Granada 1+ goals
65%
Granada 2+ goals
29%
Granada 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
76%
Granada (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.37 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Granada attack 1.24 + Real Madrid W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Madrid W scores more
60%
level
21%
Granada scores more
19%

Real Madrid W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Real Madrid W win just 59% against the top half (vs 91% against the bottom)
  • Granada win just 18% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWD
Granada
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Madrid W face Granada (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Real Madrid W hosting Granada. Match starts May 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.