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Real Madrid W vs Espanyol W — Primera División Femenina 2020

Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
Preview
15:00
Espanyol W
Espanyol W
10/18/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 7
Big match
66%
Real Madrid W
model favours
66%20%14%

Real Madrid W have won 6 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Real Madrid W66%
×Draw20%
Espanyol W14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid W
2.03
Espanyol W
0.80

Real Madrid W creates 154% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 47 away

creates per match

Real Madrid W
2.29
Espanyol W
0.70

allows per match

Real Madrid W
0.90
Espanyol W
1.77

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par
Espanyol W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Espanyol W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw
86%
Real Madrid W or Espanyol W
80%
Draw or Espanyol W
34%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+
41%
Espanyol W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals
87%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
60%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
33%
Espanyol W 1+ goals
55%
Espanyol W 2+ goals
19%
Espanyol W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
83%
Espanyol W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Espanyol W away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Espanyol W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.03

Espanyol W attack 0.70 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Madrid W scores more
66%
level
20%
Espanyol W scores more
14%

Real Madrid W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Espanyol W win just 8% against the top half (vs 36% against the bottom)
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 4.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWD
W
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Madrid W vs Espanyol W — Match Preview

Real Madrid W face Espanyol W on October 18, 2026 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.