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Real Madrid W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
11/4/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 5Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Real Madrid W65%
×Draw19%
Deportivo de La Coruña W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid W
2.31
Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.06

Real Madrid W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 59 away

creates per match

Real Madrid W
2.29
Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.22

allows per match

Real Madrid W
0.90
Deportivo de La Coruña W
2.34

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par
Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Deportivo de La Coruña W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw
84%
Real Madrid W or Deportivo de La Coruña W
81%
Draw or Deportivo de La Coruña W
35%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+
42%
Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals
90%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
67%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
40%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
80%
Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.31

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.22 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Madrid W scores more
65%
level
19%
Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more
16%

Real Madrid W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W

Real Madrid W beat Deportivo de La Coruña W 3-0 in Primera División Femenina on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11 in Madrid.