Real Madrid W vs Deportivo Alavés W

Real Madrid W

Preview

15:00

Deportivo Alavés W

5/23/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 30

73%

Real Madrid W

model favours

73%16%11%

Real Madrid W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

67%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Madrid W73%

×Draw16%

Deportivo Alavés W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

0.92

Real Madrid W

2.58

Deportivo Alavés W

0.92

Real Madrid W creates 180% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 30 away

2.29

creates per match

0.93

0.90

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Real Madrid W

2.29

Deportivo Alavés W

0.93

allows per match

Real Madrid W

0.90

Deportivo Alavés W

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Deportivo Alavés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw

89%

Real Madrid W or Deportivo Alavés W

84%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés W

27%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

51%

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

92%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

72%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

47%

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

86%

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.58

Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Real Madrid W scores more

73%

level

16%

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

11%

Real Madrid W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo Alavés W win just 3% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WWWWD

W

DDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff