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Real Madrid II vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
Preview
15:00
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
9/6/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2
56%
Real Madrid II
model favours
56%23%21%

Real Madrid II and Juventud Torremolinos have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid II56%
×Draw23%
Juventud Torremolinos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.77
Juventud Torremolinos
0.99

Real Madrid II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.96
Juventud Torremolinos
1.05

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.93
Juventud Torremolinos
1.58

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
79%
Real Madrid II or Juventud Torremolinos
77%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
44%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
31%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
83%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
53%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
26%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
63%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
26%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
73%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
56%
level
23%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
21%

Real Madrid II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWDDL
Torremolinos
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Madrid II face Juventud Torremolinos (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Real Madrid II hosting Juventud Torremolinos. Match starts September 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.