Real Madrid II 2–2 CF Talavera: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

CF Talavera

4/17/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 3Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Real Madrid II46%

×Draw24%

CF Talavera29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchCF Talavera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.25

Real Madrid II

1.63

CF Talavera

1.25

Real Madrid II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Real Madrid II

2.00

CF Talavera

1.33

allows per match

Real Madrid II

1.17

CF Talavera

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

CF Talavera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

CF Talavera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

71%

Real Madrid II or CF Talavera

76%

Draw or CF Talavera

54%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

24%

CF Talavera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

80%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

48%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

22%

CF Talavera 1+ goals

71%

CF Talavera 2+ goals

36%

CF Talavera 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

61%

CF Talavera (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

CF Talavera away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 2.00 + CF Talavera defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

CF Talavera attack 1.33 + Real Madrid II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

46%

level

24%

CF Talavera scores more

29%

Real Madrid II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff