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Real Madrid II vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
Canc
16:30
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
4/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Madrid II46%
×Draw29%
Atlético Baleares24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.24
Atlético Baleares
0.81

Real Madrid II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.62
Atlético Baleares
0.77

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.85
Atlético Baleares
0.85

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
76%
Real Madrid II or Atlético Baleares
71%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
54%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
71%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
35%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
66%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Atlético Baleares attack 0.77 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
46%
level
29%
Atlético Baleares scores more
24%

Real Madrid II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Madrid II face Atlético Baleares (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Real Madrid II hosting Atlético Baleares. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Madrid II host Atlético Baleares at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.