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Real Kings vs Richards Bay — Premier Soccer League 2018

Real Kings
Real Kings
PST
13:00
Richards Bay
Richards Bay
6/24/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1Chatsworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Real Kings44%
×Draw31%
Richards Bay25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Kings
1.15
Richards Bay
0.80

Real Kings creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Real Kings
1.08
Richards Bay
0.62

allows per match

Real Kings
0.98
Richards Bay
1.22

finishing

Real Kings+0.00on par
Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kings ↓

Richards Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Real Kings or draw
75%
Real Kings or Richards Bay
69%
Draw or Richards Bay
56%

Winning margin

Real Kings wins by 2+
19%
Richards Bay wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Kings 1+ goals
68%
Real Kings 2+ goals
32%
Real Kings 3+ goals
11%
Richards Bay 1+ goals
55%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
19%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Kings (draw refunded)
63%
Richards Bay (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kings at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kings attack 1.08 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Real Kings defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Kings scores more
44%
level
31%
Richards Bay scores more
25%

Real Kings at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Kings vs Richards Bay — Match Preview

Real Kings face Richards Bay on June 24, 2021 in this Premier Soccer League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Kings host Richards Bay at Chatsworth Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.