Real Kashmir 2–1 Mohammedan: Result & Stats

Real Kashmir

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mohammedan

M. Robertson 50' (pen)

D. Bhat 33'

Pedro Manzi 72'

3/25/2021

I-League · Championship Round - 5Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Kashmir39%

×Draw26%

Mohammedan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real KashmirExpected goals in this matchMohammedan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.25

Real Kashmir

1.35

Mohammedan

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 38 away

1.63

creates per match

1.37

1.14

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Real Kashmir

1.63

Mohammedan

1.37

allows per match

Real Kashmir

1.14

Mohammedan

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Mohammedan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Mohammedan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw

66%

Real Kashmir or Mohammedan

74%

Draw or Mohammedan

61%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

18%

Mohammedan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

74%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

39%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

15%

Mohammedan 1+ goals

71%

Mohammedan 2+ goals

36%

Mohammedan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

53%

Mohammedan (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.14 · 70 matches

Mohammedan away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + Mohammedan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mohammedan attack 1.37 + Real Kashmir defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Kashmir scores more

39%

level

26%

Mohammedan scores more

34%

Real Kashmir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

D. Bhat↳ L. Ralte

46'

Faisal Ali← S. Ghosh

50'

M. RobertsonPenalty

54'

57'

57'

58'

62'

68'

70'

M. Mohammed← S. Rahaman

72'

Pedro Manzi↳ T. Sarkar

80'

V. Chhangte← G. Nigam

81'

C. Lyngdoh

90+6'

M. Mohammed

Real

Mohammedan

31

▼

Mondal

2

Akhtar

9

▼

Rahaman

20

Mondal

47

▼

Faiaz

22

▼

18

35

50

45

⚽

Manzi

23

▼

1

13

4

21

A

Ralte

3

⚽

Robertson

16

▼

15

11

18

19

▼

Ayoub

10

⚽

Bhat

Manager: D. Robertson

58'▲S. Kynshi←▼A. Ayoub

68'▲A. Lukman←▼P. Tuboi

Real Kashmir substitutes

17Kynshi7Lukman27Kumar23Bhat6Kumar28Sheikh2Nagial5Chhetri12Ganie24Wani

Manager: Jose Hevia

46'▲Faisal Ali←▼S. Ghosh

57'▲K. Sawant←▼M. Mondal

57'▲T. Sarkar←▼S. Faiaz

70'▲M. Mohammed←▼S. Rahaman

80'▲V. Chhangte←▼G. Nigam

Mohammedan substitutes

11Ali30Sawant25Sarkar3Mohammed7Chhangte21Singh26Ali41Roy16D'Silva36Rawat

Match Recap: Real Kashmir vs Mohammedan

Real Kashmir beat Mohammedan 2-1 in I-League on March 25, 2021.

Goals: D. Bhat (33'), M. Robertson (50' pen), Pedro Manzi (72').

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.

Real Kashmir vs Mohammedan — I-League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Kashmir vs Mohammedan