Real Kashmir 1–1 Minerva Punjab: Result & Stats

Real Kashmir

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Minerva Punjab

G. Krizo 62'

M. Chote 21'

1/10/2020

I-League · Round 7TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground (Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Real Kashmir41%

×Draw26%

Minerva Punjab34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real KashmirExpected goals in this matchMinerva Punjab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.29

Real Kashmir

1.45

Minerva Punjab

1.29

Real Kashmir creates 12% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 33 away

1.63

creates per match

1.45

1.14

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Real Kashmir

1.63

Minerva Punjab

1.45

allows per match

Real Kashmir

1.14

Minerva Punjab

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Minerva Punjab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw

66%

Real Kashmir or Minerva Punjab

74%

Draw or Minerva Punjab

59%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

20%

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

77%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

42%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

18%

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

72%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

37%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

55%

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.14 · 70 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Minerva Punjab attack 1.45 + Real Kashmir defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Kashmir scores more

41%

level

26%

Minerva Punjab scores more

34%

Real Kashmir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

46'

62'

64'

87'

90+1'

Real4-2-3-1

Minerva

16

21

5

3

24

15

7

4

49

▼

Khosla

19

⚽

▼

10

1

26

3

25

6

16

24

▼

Sayed

9

⚽

▼

7

13

10

Manager: D. Robertson

46'▲F. Ganie←▼A. Sayed

90+1'▲A. Katebe←▼G. Krizo

Real Kashmir substitutes

2Ganie5Katebe11Das17Mascarenhas21Samdup12Singh4Hammad

Manager: Y. Law

64'▲A. Dipanda←▼M. Chote

87'▲H. Jangra←▼G. Khosla

Minerva Punjab substitutes

29Dipanda32Jangra6Das28Shadap1Roy38Lallawmpuia39Kharshandi