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Real Kashmir vs Gokulam — I-League 2019

Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
CANC
00:00
Gokulam
Gokulam
3/31/2020I-LeagueI-League · Round 3TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground (Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Real Kashmir38%
×Draw25%
Gokulam36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Kashmir
1.42
Gokulam
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 65 away

creates per match

Real Kashmir
1.63
Gokulam
1.63

allows per match

Real Kashmir
1.14
Gokulam
1.22

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par
Gokulam+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Gokulam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw
64%
Real Kashmir or Gokulam
75%
Draw or Gokulam
62%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+
18%
Gokulam wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals
76%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
41%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
17%
Gokulam 1+ goals
75%
Gokulam 2+ goals
40%
Gokulam 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
51%
Gokulam (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.14 · 70 matches

Gokulam away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.22 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + Gokulam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gokulam attack 1.63 + Real Kashmir defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Kashmir scores more
38%
level
25%
Gokulam scores more
36%

Real Kashmir at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Kashmir host Gokulam

March 31, 2020: Real Kashmir take on Gokulam in I-League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Kashmir host Gokulam at TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground (Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.