Real Frontera 2–3 Llaneros de Guanare

Real Frontera

FT

2 – 3

Llaneros de Guanare

5/26/2018

Segunda División · Apertura - 16Estadio Pedro Chávez (San Antonio del Táchira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Real Frontera45%

×Draw26%

Llaneros de Guanare29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real FronteraExpected goals in this matchLlaneros de Guanare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.10

Real Frontera

1.45

Llaneros de Guanare

1.10

Real Frontera creates 32% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 43 away

1.36

creates per match

0.93

1.28

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Real Frontera

1.36

Llaneros de Guanare

0.93

allows per match

Real Frontera

1.28

Llaneros de Guanare

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw

71%

Real Frontera or Llaneros de Guanare

74%

Draw or Llaneros de Guanare

55%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+

22%

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals

77%

Real Frontera 2+ goals

42%

Real Frontera 3+ goals

18%

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals

67%

Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals

30%

Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)

61%

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.36 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Real Frontera defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Frontera scores more

45%

level

26%

Llaneros de Guanare scores more

29%

Real Frontera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Frontera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff