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Real Frontera vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

Real Frontera
Real Frontera
FT
4 – 2
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
8/21/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 3Complejo Deportivo UCAT (San Cristóbal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Frontera50%
×Draw24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Frontera
1.71
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.15

Real Frontera creates 49% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 44 away

creates per match

Real Frontera
1.36
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

Real Frontera
1.28
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw
74%
Real Frontera or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
76%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
50%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals
82%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
51%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.36 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + Real Frontera defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Frontera scores more
50%
level
24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
26%

Real Frontera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Frontera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real Frontera 4–2 Deportivo JBL del Zulia

Real Frontera beat Deportivo JBL del Zulia 4-2 in Segunda División on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo UCAT (San Cristóbal).