Real Estelí 2–0 Walter Ferretti: Result & Stats

Real Estelí

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Walter Ferretti

2/25/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 6Estadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Real Estelí58%

×Draw24%

Walter Ferretti18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real EstelíExpected goals in this matchWalter Ferretti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.82

Real Estelí

1.71

Walter Ferretti

0.82

Real Estelí creates 109% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 137 away

2.06

creates per match

1.03

0.62

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Real Estelí

2.06

Walter Ferretti

1.03

allows per match

Real Estelí

0.62

Walter Ferretti

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

Walter Ferretti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw

82%

Real Estelí or Walter Ferretti

76%

Draw or Walter Ferretti

42%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+

33%

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals

82%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

51%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

24%

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals

56%

Walter Ferretti 2+ goals

20%

Walter Ferretti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

77%

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.62 · 151 matches

Walter Ferretti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.06 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.71

Walter Ferretti attack 1.03 + Real Estelí defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Estelí scores more

58%

level

24%

Walter Ferretti scores more

18%

Real Estelí at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff