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Real Estelí vs Diriangén — Primera Division 2026

Real Estelí
Real Estelí
AET
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Diriangén
Diriangén
12/23/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - FinalEstadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Real Estelí47%
×Draw25%
Diriangén27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Estelí
1.55
Diriangén
1.11

Real Estelí creates 40% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 150 away

creates per match

Real Estelí
2.06
Diriangén
1.61

allows per match

Real Estelí
0.62
Diriangén
1.04

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par
Diriangén+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

Diriangén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw
73%
Real Estelí or Diriangén
75%
Draw or Diriangén
53%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+
24%
Diriangén wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals
79%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
46%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
20%
Diriangén 1+ goals
67%
Diriangén 2+ goals
30%
Diriangén 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)
64%
Diriangén (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.62 · 151 matches

Diriangén away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.06 + Diriangén defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.55

Diriangén attack 1.61 + Real Estelí defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Estelí scores more
47%
level
25%
Diriangén scores more
27%

Real Estelí at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Estelí vs Diriangén

Real Estelí beat Diriangén 1-0 in Primera Division on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Independencia in Estelí.