Real Espana 2–1 Vida: Result & Stats

Real Espana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Vida

11/10/2021

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 18Estadio Francisco Morazán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Real Espana51%

×Draw24%

Vida25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real EspanaExpected goals in this matchVida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.07

Real Espana

1.66

Vida

1.07

Real Espana creates 55% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 109 away

1.62

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Real Espana

1.62

Vida

1.15

allows per match

Real Espana

1.00

Vida

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Espana+0.00on par

Vida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Espana ↓

Vida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Espana or draw

75%

Real Espana or Vida

76%

Draw or Vida

49%

Winning margin

Real Espana wins by 2+

27%

Vida wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Espana 1+ goals

81%

Real Espana 2+ goals

49%

Real Espana 3+ goals

23%

Vida 1+ goals

66%

Vida 2+ goals

29%

Vida 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Espana (draw refunded)

68%

Vida (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Espana at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 160 matches

Vida away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Espana attack 1.62 + Vida defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Vida attack 1.15 + Real Espana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Espana scores more

51%

level

24%

Vida scores more

25%

Real Espana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Espana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff