Real Espana 3–2 Platense FC: Result & Stats

Real Espana

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Platense FC

M. Martínez 59'

I. Lopez 51'

Á. Tejeda 13'

V. Araúz 90+3', 90+1'

10/26/2020

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 7Estadio Francisco Morazán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Real Espana53%

×Draw24%

Platense FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real EspanaExpected goals in this matchPlatense FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.06

Real Espana

1.75

Platense FC

1.06

Real Espana creates 65% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 87 away

1.66

creates per match

1.15

0.97

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Real Espana

1.66

Platense FC

1.15

allows per match

Real Espana

0.97

Platense FC

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Espana+0.00on par

Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Espana ↓

Platense FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Espana or draw

77%

Real Espana or Platense FC

76%

Draw or Platense FC

47%

Winning margin

Real Espana wins by 2+

30%

Platense FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Espana 1+ goals

83%

Real Espana 2+ goals

52%

Real Espana 3+ goals

25%

Platense FC 1+ goals

65%

Platense FC 2+ goals

29%

Platense FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Espana (draw refunded)

70%

Platense FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Espana at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 160 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Espana attack 1.66 + Platense FC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Platense FC attack 1.15 + Real Espana defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Espana scores more

53%

level

24%

Platense FC scores more

23%

Real Espana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Espana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

51'

53'

54'

59'

66'

D. Vuelto← J. Benavidez

66'

R. Martínez← Á. Tejeda

69'

D. Garcia

70'

G. Chávez← M. Martínez

70'

E. Rocha← Jeancarlo Vargas

76'

J. Moncada← A. Martínez

83'

E. Rivas← M. Soto

83'

J. Quiróz← S. Correa

90+1'

V. Araúz

90+3'

V. Araúz

Real

Platense

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Tejeda

Manager: R. Martínez

66'▲D. Vuelto←▼J. Benavidez

66'▲R. Martínez←▼Á. Tejeda

70'▲G. Chávez←▼M. Martínez

83'▲E. Rivas←▼M. Soto

83'▲J. Quiróz←▼S. Correa

Real Espana substitutes

VueltoMartínezChávezRivasQuirózPerellóPalacios

Manager: J. López

53'▲M. Leiva←▼H. Ayala

54'▲R. Zuñiga←▼N. Lugli

70'▲E. Rocha←▼Jeancarlo Vargas

76'▲J. Moncada←▼A. Martínez

Platense FC substitutes

LeivaZuñigaRochaMoncadaBernárdezCastilloOseguera

Liga Nacional: Real Espana 3–2 Platense FC

Real Espana beat Platense FC 3-2 in Liga Nacional on October 26, 2020.

Goals: Á. Tejeda (13'), I. Lopez (51'), M. Martínez (59'), V. Araúz (90+1', 90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Morazán in San Pedro Sula.

Real Espana vs Platense FC — Liga Nacional 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga Nacional: Real Espana 3–2 Platense FC