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Real Espana vs Juticalpa — Liga Nacional 2018

Real Espana
Real Espana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juticalpa
Juticalpa
3/7/2019Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 10Estadio Francisco Morazán (San Pedro Sula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Real Espana59%
×Draw23%
Juticalpa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Espana
1.84
Juticalpa
0.93

Real Espana creates 98% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 58 away

creates per match

Real Espana
1.62
Juticalpa
0.86

allows per match

Real Espana
1.00
Juticalpa
2.07

finishing

Real Espana+0.00on par
Juticalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Espana ↓

Juticalpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Espana or draw
81%
Real Espana or Juticalpa
77%
Draw or Juticalpa
41%

Winning margin

Real Espana wins by 2+
34%
Juticalpa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Espana 1+ goals
84%
Real Espana 2+ goals
55%
Real Espana 3+ goals
28%
Juticalpa 1+ goals
61%
Juticalpa 2+ goals
24%
Juticalpa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Espana (draw refunded)
76%
Juticalpa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Espana at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 160 matches

Juticalpa away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Espana attack 1.62 + Juticalpa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

Juticalpa attack 0.86 + Real Espana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Espana scores more
59%
level
23%
Juticalpa scores more
19%

Real Espana at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Espana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Real Espana 0–0 Juticalpa

Real Espana and Juticalpa drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on March 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Morazán (San Pedro Sula).