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Real Espana vs CD Olimpia — Liga Nacional 2018

Real Espana
Real Espana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia
2/12/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 5Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 160+ matches

Real Espana36%
×Draw26%
CD Olimpia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Espana
1.29
CD Olimpia
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 160 home / 175 away

creates per match

Real Espana
1.62
CD Olimpia
1.64

allows per match

Real Espana
1.00
CD Olimpia
0.97

finishing

Real Espana+0.00on par
CD Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Espana ↓

CD Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Espana or draw
62%
Real Espana or CD Olimpia
74%
Draw or CD Olimpia
64%

Winning margin

Real Espana wins by 2+
16%
CD Olimpia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Espana 1+ goals
72%
Real Espana 2+ goals
37%
Real Espana 3+ goals
14%
CD Olimpia 1+ goals
73%
CD Olimpia 2+ goals
38%
CD Olimpia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real Espana (draw refunded)
49%
CD Olimpia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Espana at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 160 matches

CD Olimpia away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.97 · 175 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Espana attack 1.62 + CD Olimpia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

CD Olimpia attack 1.64 + Real Espana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Espana scores more
36%
level
26%
CD Olimpia scores more
38%

CD Olimpia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Espana vs CD Olimpia

Real Espana and CD Olimpia drew 1-1 in Liga Nacional on February 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano in San Pedro Sula.