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Real de Minas vs CD Motagua — Liga Nacional 2018

Real de Minas
Real de Minas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
9/12/2018Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 9Estadio Marcelo Tinoco (Danlí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Real de Minas29%
×Draw26%
CD Motagua45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real de Minas
1.13
CD Motagua
1.48

CD Motagua creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 173 away

creates per match

Real de Minas
1.17
CD Motagua
1.47

allows per match

Real de Minas
1.48
CD Motagua
1.08

finishing

Real de Minas+0.00on par
CD Motagua+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real de Minas ↓

CD Motagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real de Minas or draw
55%
Real de Minas or CD Motagua
74%
Draw or CD Motagua
71%

Winning margin

Real de Minas wins by 2+
11%
CD Motagua wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Real de Minas 1+ goals
68%
Real de Minas 2+ goals
31%
Real de Minas 3+ goals
11%
CD Motagua 1+ goals
77%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
43%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Real de Minas (draw refunded)
39%
CD Motagua (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real de Minas at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

CD Motagua away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.08 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real de Minas attack 1.17 + CD Motagua defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

CD Motagua attack 1.47 + Real de Minas defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real de Minas scores more
29%
level
26%
CD Motagua scores more
45%

CD Motagua at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CD Motagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real de Minas vs CD Motagua

Real de Minas and CD Motagua drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Marcelo Tinoco (Danlí).