Real de Minas 3–1 CD Marathon: Result & Stats

Real de Minas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

CD Marathon

10/21/2018

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 15Estadio Roberto Martínez Avila (Siguatepeque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Real de Minas34%

×Draw26%

CD Marathon39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real de MinasExpected goals in this matchCD Marathon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.34

Real de Minas

1.24

CD Marathon

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 163 away

1.17

creates per match

1.21

1.48

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Real de Minas

1.17

CD Marathon

1.21

allows per match

Real de Minas

1.48

CD Marathon

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real de Minas+0.00on par

CD Marathon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real de Minas ↓

CD Marathon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real de Minas or draw

61%

Real de Minas or CD Marathon

74%

Draw or CD Marathon

66%

Winning margin

Real de Minas wins by 2+

15%

CD Marathon wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Real de Minas 1+ goals

71%

Real de Minas 2+ goals

35%

Real de Minas 3+ goals

13%

CD Marathon 1+ goals

74%

CD Marathon 2+ goals

39%

CD Marathon 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Real de Minas (draw refunded)

47%

CD Marathon (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real de Minas at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

CD Marathon away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.31 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real de Minas attack 1.17 + CD Marathon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

CD Marathon attack 1.21 + Real de Minas defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real de Minas scores more

34%

level

26%

CD Marathon scores more

39%

CD Marathon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CD Marathon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff